From Crisis to Crisis: What's Happening with Global Gold Reserves

This trend reflects developing nations' drive to diversify reserves and reduce U.S. dollar reliance. It began post-global financial crisis, with emerging central banks turning net buyers since 2010.

In 2023, top buyers included the Central Bank of Turkey (148 tons), People's Bank of China (62 tons), Reserve Bank of India (33 tons), and several Middle Eastern regulators.

Reserve structure analysis reveals a strategic shift: China, Russia, India, and other emerging economies have boosted gold holdings, making the metal a key dedollarization winner. Gold's global reserve share neared 20%, while the dollar's fell below 47%.

Central bank gold demand in 2025 was 863 tons, down 21% year-over-year—the lowest in three years. Beyond Russia's central bank, others sold (e.g., Uzbekistan, Singapore, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan); in Q1 2026, Turkey's central bank dumped 52 tons to steady the lira.

From 2014 to 2023, Russia's gold reserves grew from about 1,000 to over 2,500 tons, ranking fifth globally. By Q1 2025, gold was 35.8% of reserves; by January 2026, 43.3%— underscoring dedollarization and resilience to external shocks.

Russia's 2025 gold sales supported budget rule execution alongside yuan sales. To offset National Wealth Fund spending for budget deficits, the central bank mirrors operations.

Previously virtual (shifting gold between funds and reserves), 2025 sales involved real domestic market transactions, signaling severe state finance strains.

Amid oil/gas revenue shortfalls and shrinking liquid National Wealth Fund, the budget rule is under review, with the cutoff price eyed for reduction (currently $59/barrel). Thus, until July 1, 2026, Finance Ministry and central bank forex/gold operations are suspended.

Author: Dr. of Economic Sciences, Professor at the Department of World Economy and International Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Oksana Vladimirovna Savvina.