India’s fertility rate slips below replacement level: Why it matters

India’s fertility rate has, for the first time, dropped beneath the threshold required to prevent population decline, sparking worries about future labour shortages and a rapidly ageing society.

For many decades, India experienced swift population growth. Government figures, including the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report — the country’s most extensive demographic survey — show that while fertility has been decreasing for years, it had remained high enough to sustain overall population growth.

The most recent SRS report, published last month by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, revealed that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 children per woman — below the 2.1 replacement level required to maintain a stable population over time. TFR refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime. In the early 2000s, India’s TFR stood at about 3.3 births per woman.

What is driving this decline in fertility? Why is it important and what could it mean for the country?

Here’s what we know:

What has led to the falling fertility rate ?

Beginning in the 1970s, successive Indian governments sought to curb what they described as overpopulation — a mismatch between a rapidly growing population and limited resources in what was then a relatively low-income country.

A number of top-down policies — including a short-lived and controversial forced sterilisation campaign during the 1970s — were introduced to restrain population growth.

Even so, as recently as 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautioned against a “population explosion”.

However, by 2022, early indications suggested India was entering new demographic territory. The National Family Health Survey showed that the TFR was declining quickly across communities. Yet in 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous nation, and headlines focused largely on its 1.5 billion people rather than its falling fertility rate.

The newest survey indicates that population decline could arrive sooner than policymakers had anticipated.

Specialists point to improved access to education and contraception as major drivers of lower fertility, alongside the rising financial burden of raising children.

“Total fertility rate often drops when more women in society have access to education, contraceptives and more agency in decision-making in households,” Dipa Sinha, a development economist specialising in social policy in India, told Al Jazeera. “It also drops when the economy becomes expensive so raising children also becomes expensive.”

She added that another factor is at play.

As infant mortality falls, families tend to have fewer children. The latest SRS report shows infant deaths declining significantly — from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 in 2024.

These trends closely align with regional differences in fertility rates.

The May demographic survey found that poorer northern states such as Bihar — where education levels are lower and infant mortality remains relatively high — recorded the country’s highest fertility rate at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6.

In contrast, the capital, New Delhi — which has among the highest education standards and lowest infant mortality rates — posted the lowest fertility rate, averaging 1.2 births per woman. Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, known for stronger health and education systems, reported a rate of 1.3.

“Many studies on regional development in India since the early 1980s show that southern states progressed more rapidly in terms of economic growth and women’s status. These factors have contributed to their lower fertility rates,” Sinha said.

What are the consequences of a falling fertility rate?

In 2005, India entered a phase known as the ‘demographic dividend’, when the share of working-age people (15–64 years) exceeds the number of dependents — children and the elderly. The UNFPA estimates that this window could remain open until 2055.

Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong reached this stage in the 1960s and went on to become advanced economies. China entered it in the 1980s and, alongside sweeping economic reforms, experienced rapid growth, eventually becoming the world’s second-largest economy.

India has also benefited economically from its demographic dividend. However, millions remain unemployed, and the country is still far from fully developed.

With fertility now declining further, experts warn that India may struggle to fully capitalise on this demographic advantage due to a shrinking workforce and an expanding elderly population.

“If fewer children are born, then in 30 to 40 years India will have a larger elderly population that cannot participate in the labour force as actively, creating workforce challenges,” Sinha said.

What is the politics behind India’s population data?

Significant regional disparities in fertility rates mean that northern states — already more populous — are likely to account for a growing share of India’s population in the coming decades.

Southern states have in recent years argued that they are being “penalised” with reduced federal funding, particularly under Modi’s government, Sinha said. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has traditionally faced difficulties expanding its influence in the south, although it has recently made some gains.

The allocation of federal funds to states could become an even more contentious issue, she noted. Later this year, the government plans to introduce a “delimitation” policy in parliament, redistributing parliamentary seats based on updated population figures from a new census that began earlier this year and will conclude in 2027.

“There are concerns that when delimitation takes effect, the proportion of parliamentary seats held by southern states may decrease,” Sinha said.

Additionally, the ruling BJP has long promoted the narrative that Muslims in India have higher birth rates than Hindus, fuelling fears among some Hindus about losing majority status. Hindu nationalist groups have urged Hindu families to have more children. In February, Mohan Bhagwat, head of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), called on Hindu couples to have at least three or four children to prevent long-term demographic decline.

In fact, Muslims accounted for 13 percent of India’s population in the 2011 census. Government data shows that fertility among Muslims has declined faster than among any other religious group, including Hindus. Between 1992 and 2021, the Muslim fertility rate dropped from 4.41 to 2.36, while among Hindus it fell from 3.3 to 1.94.

The latest survey indicates that fertility is decreasing sharply across all religious communities.

Is India responding to its declining fertility rate?

The central government has not yet unveiled a nationwide strategy to address falling fertility, but some states are introducing measures to encourage larger families.

Last month, Andhra Pradesh announced financial incentives of 30,000 rupees ($314) for a third child and 40,000 rupees ($418) for a fourth. According to SRS data, the state’s TFR is 1.4.

States such as Goa, Karnataka and Telangana have also established publicly funded IVF centres to support first-time parents and boost birth rates.

Sinha argued that policymakers should prioritise respecting individual reproductive choices while providing adequate support.

“Countries like India must craft public policies aligned with their demographic realities and future needs. If we are becoming an ageing society, we must prepare to support a growing elderly population,” she said, calling for improved healthcare, pensions and social security systems.

Which other countries in Asia have seen dramatic fertility rate declines?

Several other Asian economies, including China, Taiwan and South Korea, are also grappling with steep fertility declines.

World Bank data shows China’s fertility rate at 1.0, far below the replacement level of 2.1.

Taiwan’s interior ministry reported earlier this year that its TFR stands at roughly 0.86 and may fall further.

The United Nations estimates South Korea’s fertility rate at about 0.75 children per woman — the lowest in the world.