Human-elephant conflict: Study finds tusker-driven crop and property damage peaks after the monsoon

The study, “Estimating the occurrence and detection of human-elephant conflict in India through a Bayesian occupancy modeling framework,” was published in Biological Conservation and led by a team of researchers from Columbia University, North Carolina State University and Centre for Wildlife Studies.

It reviewed more than 20,000 verified, farmer-reported incidents of human-elephant conflict in the areas surrounding the two National Parks.

Robust predictor

The Centre for Wildlife Studies said cropland extent emerged as the most reliable and consistent predictor of where conflict occurs, which the authors link to the nutrient-rich forage that farms provide elephants, especially where fields border wildlife reserves.

“Reports tracked the crop calendar, with incidents highest in the post-monsoon period at 35%, compared with 31% during the monsoon and 26% in the pre-monsoon season. The analysis also found that places showing more nighttime light during the harvest season were more likely to report incidents. Artificial light sources used at night (including street lamps) were likewise positively associated with conflict, contrary to the assumption that light would discourage elephants. The authors interpret this not as light drawing elephants,” it said.

The study noted that even with active monitoring, only about 31.7% of incidents may have been captured.

Researchers examined 20,888 verified elephant-related incidents recorded between July 2015 and June 2023. Of these, 20,867 involved crop or property damage, while 21 involved human injury or death.

The study estimated that elephant-related incidents occurred in roughly 16% of mapped areas in any given season and used data from 389 mapped areas to project where incidents could occur in 169 comparable areas without monitoring.

Near boundaries

The authors advise prioritising mitigation near wildlife reserve boundaries during the high-risk post-monsoon farming window. To protect crops, they recommend switching to less palatable varieties and modifying harvest timing to reduce overlap between elephant activity and high-value crops during peak periods.

They also urge systematic assessment of deterrents already used by communities and agencies — including trenches, fences, night patrols and bee fences — noting that performance varies by setting.

“Seasonal rotation of deterrents may also reduce the chances of elephants becoming habituated. The authors observe that communities tend to prefer electrified and railway-line fences. However, these options can be expensive and may be installed in areas with relatively low conflict. They can also interfere with elephant movement across fragmented habitats,” the Centre for Wildlife Studies said.