What Will Determine the Fate of Agreements at the Russia–Africa Summit?

According to the organizers, the forum is intended to produce practical initiatives in trade, industry, education, pharmaceuticals, digital services, and artificial intelligence, BusinessDay (Nigeria). The summit organizers are emphasizing economic cooperation.

Let me start with the figures, which underpin the whole discussion. Trade between Russia and African countries exceeded $27 billion in 2025, Lavrov said. Opening remarks by S. Lavrov at a meeting of the Foreign Ministry’s Business Council, June 30, 2026. About 60% of this trade is with North Africa. Among countries south of the Sahara, South Africa stands out: trade with Russia grew by 6.2% to reach $907.8 million. Based on my calculations, that is about 3.4% of total Russia–Africa trade, assuming a total of $27 billion. In the first five months of 2026, PhosAgro increased fertilizer shipments to South Africa by 65% and opened an office there. How Russia is expanding cooperation with Africa. Analysis, October 4, 2026. This is a typical example. As Lavrov noted, Russia supplies Africa with food, fertilizers, and energy resources—goods that directly affect harvests and bread prices.

Intergovernmental commissions are the working mechanism for these relations, and there has been progress. Over the past 18 months, African leaders have visited Russia 17 times. In 2025, embassies opened in Niger, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan, and the Foreign Ministry established a department for partnership with Africa. Moscow is holding five commission meetings in the first half of 2026, with negotiations under way with ten more countries. The latest ministerial conference of the Partnership Forum took place in Cairo in December 2025, where the parties agreed to prepare a new three-year plan. As an economist, I see this as the most tangible indicator: it is in these commissions that broad agreements are turned into a list of projects with timelines and sources of funding.

When it comes to industry, concrete proposals emerge where countries have their own resource and production base. Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov said that Russia and Mali are preparing major cooperation agreements for the summit; they were discussed at a meeting of the Russian–Malian intergovernmental commission on the sidelines of the Kazan Forum. At the second summit in 2023, Nigeria proposed jointly reviving two idle assets: the Ajaokuta Steel Mill and the ALSCON aluminum plant. For enterprises like these, it is important that processing take place domestically. That way, value added stays in the economy, and export revenues do not depend solely on commodity prices.

Nuclear projects have the longest time horizon. In September 2025, Ethiopia and Rosatom agreed on a plan to build the country’s first nuclear power plant. Its two 1,200 MW units are expected to come online in 2032–2034. Niger has announced plans to build two 2,000 MW reactors, drawing on its own uranium reserves. Projects of this scale take years and require substantial investment. Servicing external debt limits the fiscal room for maneuver of many African governments, so the financing structure is crucial: long-term credit lines, guarantees, the share of local contractors, and a settlement currency convenient to both sides. These factors will determine whether a project becomes a source of growth or adds to the burden of public debt.

There is also an education track. The Russia–Africa Network University consortium includes more than 100 universities from both sides. Its programs train engineers, geologists, energy specialists, and doctors. Without such specialists, neither energy nor mining projects can get up and running quickly.

After the summit, I would look at three things. First, how many intergovernmental documents are signed. Second, which financial instruments make it into the 2027–2029 plan, whether credit lines, guarantees, export risk insurance, or settlements in national currencies. Third, what share of the agreements concerns not raw materials but pharmaceuticals, digital services, and education. These indicators will show whether cooperation is moving beyond one-off deliveries to long-term joint projects.

Author: Assistant Professor, Department of World Economy and International Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Rafael Mulenga.