‘Normal’ July Rain Defies El Niño Forecasts

As of July 30, India recorded 270.1 mm of rainfall for the month, close to the normal average of 271.9 mm and well within the expected range. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier projected July rainfall at below 94% of the long-period average.

Rainfall distribution, however, was uneven. Central India registered 29% excess rainfall in July, while eastern and northeastern regions faced a 30% deficit and the south recorded a 28% shortfall.

Since June 1, the overall monsoon deficit stands at 14%. July’s unexpected improvement has reduced concerns of a major seasonal shortfall but highlighted a shifting pattern: prolonged dry spells interrupted by brief episodes of extremely heavy rainfall capable of causing floods and landslides.

A Climate Trends briefing noted that successive weather systems significantly reduced the national rainfall deficit from 40% at the end of June.

Scientists emphasize that the key takeaway from the 2026 monsoon is that El Niño alone no longer explains India’s rainfall patterns.

Rising global temperatures, warming oceans and altered atmospheric circulation are increasingly interacting with traditional climate drivers, complicating monsoon forecasting. “The challenge is no longer predicting how much rain India will receive, but determining where, when and with what intensity it will fall in a warming climate,” scientists said.

Rainfall remained highly uneven across regions. Sixteen meteorological subdivisions recorded normal rainfall during the season, while three experienced excess to large-excess precipitation. Seventeen subdivisions continued to report deficits. Central India was nearly normal with a 1% surplus, northwest India showed an 11% deficit, while eastern and northeastern India remained 30% below normal and southern India 25% deficient.

The findings are particularly noteworthy as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December — a phenomenon typically linked to weaker Indian monsoons.

Former IMD director general K J Ramesh attributed July’s rebound to unusual warming over the western Pacific, which generated successive monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal, along with the growing influence of Western Disturbances that boosted rainfall over Maharashtra and Gujarat.

“Climate change is altering the characteristics of the monsoon, and current models are not fully capturing these shifts,” Ramesh said.

Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading noted that the monsoon recovered quickly after an early July slowdown. He pointed to Umbergaon in Gujarat receiving 1,064 mm of rain within 24 hours — among the highest daily totals recorded since 1901 — as evidence of intensifying rainfall extremes. He added that climate change appears to be strengthening the monsoon’s internal weather systems.