Technologies and New Markets Are Reshaping the Geography of Economic Growth

The slowdown itself is only part of the broader shift underway. Even more notable is the transformation in the structure of growth. Economic momentum is becoming increasingly uneven: traditional centers of the global economy are expanding moderately, while emerging markets continue to post substantially higher rates.

This trend is clearly visible in Europe. According to the European Central Bank’s June forecast, real GDP in the euro area will grow by 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028. At the same time, inflation is expected to gradually converge toward target levels—from a projected 3.0% this year to 2.0% in 2028. For businesses, this environment implies the need to adapt to more restrained domestic demand and to carefully assess the effectiveness of new investments.

International trade, however, is showing greater resilience. The ECB estimates that global trade in goods and trade in services outside the euro area may increase by around 4.2% in 2026. One factor supporting this growth remains strong demand for technology-related goods and services.

The technology sector is effectively becoming an independent source of economic momentum. The expansion of artificial intelligence, cloud technologies, digital platforms, and automation is stimulating investment not only directly in IT, but also in energy, infrastructure, logistics, and data centers. As a result, digitalization is increasingly influencing the composition of capital spending and international trade.

At the same time, the geography of growth is changing. The World Bank expects South Asia’s economy to expand by about 6.3% in 2026, East Asia and the Pacific by 4.2%, and Sub-Saharan Africa by roughly 4%. For Europe and Central Asia, the projection is far more modest—around 2.1%.

This gap has long-term implications. Fast-growing economies gradually increase their contribution not only to global GDP, but also to worldwide consumer demand, investment, and the development of new production chains. Therefore, for international companies, market attractiveness is increasingly determined not by its current size, but by its growth potential, demographic trends, infrastructure development, and the speed of technology adoption.

As a result, a new configuration of global growth is emerging. Its sources are becoming more distributed: alongside the largest advanced economies, countries in Asia and other developing regions are playing a growing role, while technology is turning into one of the key factors boosting productivity and investment activity.

In the coming years, the competitiveness of countries and companies will largely be defined by their ability to integrate into these processes—leveraging technological change, identifying new growth points, and responding in time to shifts in the geography of global demand.

Author: Candidate of Economic Sciences, Instructor, Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexandra Dmitrievna Filina.