"Key Rate to Drop on June 6": A Third of Surveyed Experts Predict

10 out of 30 participants in RBC's consensus forecast, including analysts from major banks and investment companies, voted for this outcome. The publication reports that expert opinions vary. Some predict a reduction of 25-50 basis points, which would bring the key rate to 20.5-20.75%.

Meanwhile, some analysts surveyed by RBC forecast an immediate cut of 200 basis points—down to a key rate of 19%. Many experts (20 out of 30) believe the Central Bank will keep the rate at 21% but may signal a potential future softening of monetary policy. If this happens, the June meeting will mark the fifth consecutive time the key rate remains unchanged. Among the 24 experts surveyed by "Vedomosti," 15 voted in favor of the Central Bank maintaining the rate at 21% in the upcoming meeting.

Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development warned about the risks of overcooling the economy. According to his statement, the current inflation forecast for Russia this year at 7.6% is realistic but largely stems from the accumulated potential from late last year and early 2025. The head of the SRZP and State Duma deputy Sergey Mironov commented on the minister's remarks. The deputy stated that the key rate hike had led to such consequences.