Will the ruble strengthen or sharply weaken? "May exacerbate budget deficit"

In her opinion, no significant strengthening of the ruble is expected this week. "The ruble is currently in the range of 70–80 per dollar, and this is its real price, close to the levels of 2021. Unless there are new information provocations, significant fluctuations in the ruble's value are unlikely," she stated.

Meanwhile, Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), noted that an exchange rate of 90–100 rubles per US dollar is acceptable for the Russian budget and businesses. "I believe that a rate in the range of 90–100 rubles is probably something that businesses, and perhaps even the federal budget, may not exactly welcome, but it is a range in which it is possible to operate, considering it more or less predictable. It allows for solving both budgetary tasks and supporting export-oriented industries and companies. At the same time, it won’t significantly hit citizens either, as they’ve seen worse rates," Shokhin commented.

Maxim Chirkov, Associate Professor at the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at the State University of Management, expressed the view that the Russian ruble will strengthen against the US and European currencies in the near future. "In previous years and decades, since the early nineties, the ruble's exchange rate was greatly undervalued. But now the world is becoming much fairer. Resources are being distributed more evenly, and this imbalance—the artificially high value of the dollar and the euro, which had been building up for decades—is fading into the past. Therefore, the ruble will, of course, remain strong for quite a long time. Overall, it will continue to strengthen against so-called reserve currencies—the dollar and the euro," he told Prime.

Additionally, banking sector expert Andrey Barkhota is confident that this summer, an inevitable weakening of the Russian currency to 85–95 per dollar should be expected. "A ruble stronger than 85 per dollar could rapidly exacerbate the deficit of the Russian federal budget. Therefore, it is possible that this summer, the government may resort to unusual measures to weaken the ruble," the economist explained.

Earlier, Mikhail Belyaev, a member of the Expert Council of the Institute of the Stock Market and Management and a candidate of economic sciences, stated that a strong ruble, contrary to popular belief, could pose a threat to the Russian economy.