Significant change in the Central Bank's rate expected by year-end: RSPP head Shokhin

He explains this outlook by slowing price growth and a certain decline in economic activity.

According to Shokhin, current macroeconomic indicators suggest the possibility of a more accommodative monetary policy. Inflation is showing a downward trend, and forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank project its level to reach 7-7.5% by year-end. At the same time, some sectors of the economy are displaying not just signs of slowdown but even a deeper decline, which calls for stimulus measures.

The expert believes that lowering the key rate will ease the debt burden on businesses, reduce government spending on debt servicing, and support state-backed projects, including preferential lending programs. Shokhin recalled the calls from government representatives at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum for "supporting" the economy, making a rate cut a justified step.

The Central Bank may choose to take a wait-and-see approach and leave the rate unchanged in July. However, the State Duma has already voiced opinions on the need for a quicker easing of monetary policy. Earlier, Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, noted that slowing inflation and declining bank interest rates create favorable conditions for a key rate cut as early as July.

The final decision will be made based on inflation data and economic growth dynamics. If the forecasts materialize, businesses and the state budget could see financial relief as early as this autumn.