Trump Hints at a "Very Big" Trade Deal with India: What We Know

Key Points from Trump’s Statements and Current Developments:

Trump described the potential deal with India as "very big," suggesting it could lead to the "opening of India" for American companies, which he claims have historically faced significant barriers to entering the Indian market.

He emphasized that not all countries will get trade deals, and some will instead face high tariffs, but India was singled out for a potential breakthrough.

Earlier, the US announced 26% reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, with a 90-day pause set to expire on July 9, 2025. Both sides are working to reach at least a preliminary agreement before this deadline.

Current negotiations in Washington, led by India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal, are focused on resolving key issues, particularly US demands for lower tariffs on automobiles and agricultural products. India has historically protected its agricultural sector, complicating these talks.

Trump acknowledged that achieving "full removal of trade barriers" with India would be "unthinkable" and expressed uncertainty about negotiating such comprehensive access but remained optimistic about reaching a deal that would expand US access to the Indian market.

India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that negotiations are ongoing, with the goal of reaching a "fair, equitable, and balanced agreement."

Context and Implications:

The US is using a strategy of reciprocal tariffs and hardline negotiations to secure greater market access in major economies.

Meanwhile, India is diversifying its trade partnerships, having recently signed a free trade agreement with the UK and negotiating with Canada and the EU, giving it leverage in talks with the US.

The outcome of these negotiations will have significant consequences for sectors such as US agriculture and auto exports, as well as Indian exporters facing potential US tariffs.

Summary Table: Current Status of US-India Trade Deal Negotiations

Status/Details Aspect

US Tariffs on India Announced 26% reciprocal tariffs; 90-day pause ends July 9, 2025

Negotiation Focus US seeks lower Indian tariffs on autos and agriculture; India cautious on farm products

Recent Developments Indian delegation in Washington for talks; deadline pressure mounting

Trump’s Stance Optimistic about a "very big" deal; wants to "open India" for US business

India’s Stance Seeking a balanced agreement; not desperate to sign before deadline

Broader Context US just signed deal with China; trade talks with Canada stalled

Conclusion

While President Trump has expressed strong optimism about an upcoming "very big" trade deal with India, the details remain under negotiation. Both sides are under pressure to reach at least a preliminary agreement before the July 9 tariff deadline, but significant disagreements persist—particularly over market access for US goods. The situation remains fluid, with both governments signaling a willingness to continue talks, but the final outcome will hinge on resolving core issues related to tariffs and reciprocal access.