Washington Allows Deals with Venezuelan Oil - Russia on the Exceptions List

​The Trump administration views Venezuelan oil as a tool to lower global prices and ensure US energy independence. A key element is the creation of the Foreign Government Deposit Funds. All payments for oil go not directly to Caracas, but to accounts controlled by the US Treasury (particularly in Qatari banks). This ensures that the funds do not bypass American interests.

​​The US Treasury has issued a series of general licenses (GL 46, 47, 48), which divide the world into “allies” and “outsiders.”

​A group of privileged companies: Chevron, BP, Eni, Shell, and Repsol have been granted the right not just to trade, but to fully develop projects (“upstream”). ​BP and Shell are returning to offshore projects (Dragon gas field). ​The only US company operating under a license in Venezuela, Chevron, plans to ramp up oil production in the next 1.5-2 years.

Excluding states consolidated within the so-called “axis of opposition” (Russian Federation, People's Republic of China, Islamic Republic of Iran, Republic of Cuba, Democratic People's Republic of Korea) from the legal framework of trade-economic operations with energy resources pursues the strategic goal of systematically reorienting regional energy flows. This forms a bipolar structure of the energy market, where access to resources becomes not only an economic but also a political incentive.

​As a result of the introduced restrictive measures, the Russian Federation is effectively deprived of the ability to participate in commercial operations with Venezuelan oil. This situation creates significant risks for RF's property assets, which for several years have been the subject of targeted efforts to preserve and use them as a tool of geopolitical influence.

​By restructuring existing supply chains to Western standards, the US aims to eliminate Chinese and Russian capital from exploration, production, and oilfield services projects.

​​In January 2026, a new Oil Law came into force, de facto annulling the nationalization provisions of the oil and gas sector adopted during Hugo Chávez's presidency. The legislative changes significantly expand the powers of foreign companies: they are granted autonomous rights to manage export operations and dispose of the revenue received without mandatory involvement of state intermediaries or previous regulatory restrictions. A model has been introduced where the investor receives a share of the produced oil, significantly reducing expropriation risks. ​Royalty rates have been reduced to 30%, making production in Venezuela competitive compared to Guyana and Brazil.

​However, major companies ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are demanding long-term legal guarantees backed by international arbitration.

​Currently, we are witnessing the process of re-institutionalization of Venezuela's extractive sector under strict external management. The main contradiction remains the conflict between the need to attract conservative capital (ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips) and the persisting political instability, which the US is trying to contain through direct management of financial flows.

​Thus, the US is successfully implementing the “energy fortress” plan in the Western Hemisphere. Meanwhile, Russia is losing one of its key allies and a foothold in Latin America, and the global oil market is preparing for an influx of cheap heavy crude.

​Author: Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of World Economy and World Finance at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Natalia Ivanovna Chovgan