This scenario, reminiscent of an apocalyptic movie plot, could become reality for future generations. A team of researchers from the Sorbonne University in Paris has presented modeling results suggesting the potential collapse of up to 59% of Antarctica’s ice shelves within the next 275 years. This would lead to an irreversible rise in global sea levels by 10 meters, drastically changing the planet’s geography. In Russia, parts of the Krasnodar Territory, Rostov-on-Don, Astrakhan, and other southern regions would be at risk of flooding. London, Venice, Lisbon, and the entire coast of Florida in the United States could also end up underwater.
The researchers emphasize that the condition of Antarctica’s ice sheets directly depends on greenhouse gas emissions. Ice shelves act as massive buttresses that restrain the flow of ice from the continental sheet into the ocean. Their depletion and subsequent collapse could trigger a catastrophic acceleration of this process. According to the team led by Clara Burgard, these glaciers play a crucial role in maintaining the overall stability of Antarctica. The modeling, which involved 64 key ice shelves, revealed various possible future outcomes.
Under an optimistic scenario with low emissions and global warming limited to 2°C, only one glacier would be at risk. However, under high emissions and a temperature rise of 12°C by 2300, the planet faces a grim outlook. In that case, 59% of the ice shelves would become unviable, leading to a multi-meter rise in sea level. The first significant consequences could appear between 2085 and 2170.
The authors note that their estimate is conservative and that actual events could unfold faster due to additional factors such as fractures and hydrofracturing. According to coastal risk assessment tools, a 10-meter sea level rise would flood vast territories around the world. The scientists hope their study will serve as a strong argument for urgent action to curb greenhouse gas emissions.