What will happen to the gold price in March 2026?

When people talk about the gold price today, its growth is most often linked to the name of Donald Trump and his inconsistency in making political decisions. Indeed, during the first year of the newly elected president's tenure, the gold price rose from 2546 USD per troy ounce on 14.11.2024 and reached a historic high of 5627 USD on 29.01.2026. Investing.com. URL: investing.com/charts/futures-charts (accessed: 23.02.2026) This means that since the U.S. elections, gold has increased in price by 2.2 times, i.e., an investor who put one dollar into gold at the mid-November 2024 low could have earned a 220% return by the end of the gold market rally at the end of the first month of this year, making this asset one of the most effective on the global financial market (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Technical analysis of the global gold market

Source: Investing.com. URL: investing.com/charts/futures-charts (accessed: 23.02.2026)

Trump's shocking April tariffs did create an effect of the dollar weakening and gold price rising, but the latter remained mostly in a sideways trend from early April to mid-August 2025 and fluctuated in a kind of price corridor, which we can call the "summer price stagnation corridor," reaching lows of 3231 USD and highs of 3508 USD. It was difficult to make money on the gold market under such conditions Investing.com. URL: investing.com/charts/futures-charts (accessed: 23.02.2026).

Gold price volatility resumed in August 2025, when the moratorium on several of Trump's import tariffs expired, and the gold market rally continued. Thus, over two months from 20.08.2025 to 20.10.2025, gold rose from 3351 to 4396 USD. By the end of October, gold corrected to 3896 USD, forming a new impulse point on 28.10.2025, from which we will proceed to forecast the gold price dynamics for March Investing.com. URL: investing.com/charts/futures-charts (accessed: 23.02.2026). Despite the fact that the main trade conflicts were exhausted by the end of October 2025, as favorable agreements for the U.S. were reached with the EU, China, Japan, and ASEAN countries, the psychological pressure channel on the independent Fed continued to push the dollar downward, and gold rose. It also rose in price due to a kind of investor hysteria, who feared missing the opportunity to join the rally and make money at the last moment. They entered the market very late but added fuel to the fire of an already overheated market, forming a bubble that burst on 29.01.2026.

The gold market has been characterized by a high level of "overbought" conditions almost from the beginning of 2025. There were virtually no "oversold" situations during this period. On the daily chart, moments of extreme "overbought" conditions are visible in February-March, September-October, the last weeks of December 2025, and January 2026. Since early February 2026, the gold market's relative strength index has been in a neutral position on the daily chart within 51.3‒60.3%. Also, on the daily chart, a clearly forming "triangle" pattern is visible, demonstrating uncertainty in the gold market. Theoretically, after such a pattern, the gold price could either plunge deeper or shoot higher and set a new record. Drawing Fibonacci lines from the last impulse point, we see that the current gold price is between the 4963 USD line from below and the 5218 USD line from above, pressing against the upper boundary of our triangle. The gold price has been within these boundaries almost the entire February. If it breaks the upper boundary of the triangle and the upper Fibonacci line, then the next target for the global gold price will be the previous high with potential to reach an even higher Fibonacci line. At the same time, the impulse point will change. It will become the price established on 02.02.2026 (4438 USD) Investing.com. URL: investing.com/charts/futures-charts (accessed: 23.02.2026). From it, we will proceed for correcting the current forecast starting from the second week of March. In the first week, a series of events is expected, primarily the "non-farm," which could affect the gold price, either forcing it to return to the lower boundary of the current Fibonacci corridor or break its upper boundary.

The gold market is likely in a wait-and-see position, and the price may change as soon as new U.S. unemployment data is published, which comes out every first Friday of the new month. The so-called "non-farm" reflects the number of jobs created in all sectors of the U.S. economy except agriculture. If the number of jobs created in February 2026 is less than the expected figure, which will be known on 06.03.2026, the gold price will rise, and the dollar will fall; in the opposite case, the dynamics will be the reverse. The previous figure for January was 130 thousand. As for the gold price forecast, it should be particularly noted that, at least on the daily chart according to the MACD indicator, we do not see the formation of divergence. At the same time, there is no convergence effect at the correction stage either. This may mean that the gold market is now in the stage of actual correction rather than the collapse of an inflated bubble. It turns out that at the end of January, investors decided to close gold positions and take profits, accumulating liquid funds for investments either in gold at the correction stage or in other asset classes, or perhaps to close losing positions in tech company stocks, whose prices, like gold, also collapsed at the end of the first month of this year. Then investors should now buy gold ahead of March in anticipation of price growth.

At the same time, the candle of the current gold price from 23.02.2026 is concerning. On the chart, we see that it has strongly broken away upward from the previous bullish candle formed on Friday, 20.02.2026. Also noteworthy is the small body of this candle. According to Japanese candlestick analysis methodology, a decrease in the candle body primarily means reduced volatility. Secondly, a "doji" candle can demonstrate market weakness when bulls lack sufficient strength to resume the rally, so the bearish candle from 24.02.2026 is a quite logical consequence, and bears may well hold the market within the current Fibonacci lines until the last days of short February and the first days of March, until the Friday "non-farm." In this situation, all else being equal, i.e., if no other unforeseen circumstances occur at the same time, and if Trump's behavior is relatively balanced and predictable, only unfavorable U.S. employment figures could trigger further gold price growth. In the case of favorable labor statistics, the dollar will strengthen, and the gold price will either break the lower boundary of the current Fibonacci corridor or fluctuate in a sideways trend within the same corridor, and accordingly, until the publication of other statistical data or other important geopolitical events. In any case, those wishing to profit from the "non-farm" release on 06.03.2026 and celebrate International Women's Day with the earnings are advised to use a locking strategy.

Author: Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor of the Department of World Economy and World Finance, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Vyacheslavovich Zharikov